Mar 13, 2010

4th Wave Studies With the DOW '00-'03

Still see the same pattern for long term 4th waves in this chart.

4th Wave Studies With GLD

I figured this was a great time to do some analysis of 4th waves since the RVX seems to be completing one right now. This is the GLD in 2008 completing a long term 4th wave. Even with the 2 day chart you can clearly make out the counts. The question I have now is, do all 4th waves have this pattern, or only within a C wave? I need to determine if GLD is in a long term C, or a long term 5th wave with further analysis.

Mar 12, 2010

See, I'm Not a Perma-Bear. Well, Kind of.....

The RVX is taking a C wave shaped bounce right now, probably to the 25-26 range. This indicates to me that there is still a 5th wave down in the RVX to go, indicating at least a sizeable rally, whether the highs will be broken is another question. I have heard 692 being kicked around on other blogs. I also tried to match up the Fib measurement from the post that I made earlier using as a comparison. It was cut off, but potential 5th wave targets would be between 692 and 700 in this scenario. I don't want to think about the 23.6 retracement from the all-time highs at 733 unless I am free to switch into TNA due to a family member's illness.

Here is a repost of the earlier measurement:

Shrinking Bullishness and 5th Wave Endings

I believe this is still the "shrinking" 5th wave pattern that I am seeing as they are identical in count but getting smaller with each progression. The B wave today did not make a new high, so it is very possible the high has already been made. By the time factor that I labeled, the bulls don't have much time left to break above it.

Are We There Yet?

I keep counting this pattern over and over again. It is confusing, but the indicators are showing a possible rollover here to support a final 5th wave count.

Mar 11, 2010

5th Wave Pattern with Fibinocci Measurement

This 5th wave was completed just before the recent C wave correction. The measurement is a little tricky compared to our current pattern. The counts don't always go in the direction or distance you think they will within impulsive waves and I believe the measure point is much lower during our current rally from February. Ignore the arrow as this was done for my facebook friends a couple of days ago. I drew a line through each abc(4) pattern to make it a little easier for comparison.

RVX Starting a New Uptrend?

Mar 6, 2010

Trading/Investing Within the ENORMITY of Our Situation

I thought I had a handle on just how large and bad our situation is. Well, this study just made it worse. I went back and compared the length of time of the first phase of this modern day depression. There is an approximately 4.86 times ratio in our situation vs the Great Depression.  We need to adjust our time horizon for trading/Investing as there will be a great time to get long after the next big drop. This would also concur with my $8-10 Citigroup target. I could not for the life of me convince myself that Citigroup could go this high in our bad situation. The great depression proves that it can, in my opinion. We are just finishing the first little red "a" right now equivalent to Nov-Dec. 1929 and "b" will begin soon. Whether it breaks the March '09 lows  in "b" or not is yet to be seen. B wave targets vary so we will just have to count it out on the way down. Click on each pic for larger view.

For those who use Elliot Wave here is an RVX projection chart that I believe confirms the B wave down. A wedge breakout essentially breaks down into a B wave formation after the breakout. Here is my intrepretation.

Here are some other charts just for comparisons:

Mar 5, 2010

A Study of Long Term Rally Ending 5th Waves

I thought it would be good to have something to compare to as a guide into next week. I had to use the 2 day chart to go back to 2007 and the last 5th wave ending rally. I compared to the daily chart currently because this is on a much smaller scale now.

Here is the DOW
Here is the IWM

Ride'n the Line

IWM and RTB 4th Wave Revision

I have been trying to get this nailed down because there is a lot going on in the 4th wave area, with 5th wave of 3 ending and this abc4 pattern beginning. I made some corrective changes to my chart and I believe this is right because it looks more like a traditional 4th wave, it's just that it's broken down into a measureable pattern.