Still see the same pattern for long term 4th waves in this chart.
Mar 13, 2010
I figured this was a great time to do some analysis of 4th waves since the RVX seems to be completing one right now. This is the GLD in 2008 completing a long term 4th wave. Even with the 2 day chart you can clearly make out the counts. The question I have now is, do all 4th waves have this pattern, or only within a C wave? I need to determine if GLD is in a long term C, or a long term 5th wave with further analysis.
Mar 12, 2010
The RVX is taking a C wave shaped bounce right now, probably to the 25-26 range. This indicates to me that there is still a 5th wave down in the RVX to go, indicating at least a sizeable rally, whether the highs will be broken is another question. I have heard 692 being kicked around on other blogs. I also tried to match up the Fib measurement from the post that I made earlier using as a comparison. It was cut off, but potential 5th wave targets would be between 692 and 700 in this scenario. I don't want to think about the 23.6 retracement from the all-time highs at 733 unless I am free to switch into TNA due to a family member's illness.
Here is a repost of the earlier measurement:
I believe this is still the "shrinking" 5th wave pattern that I am seeing as they are identical in count but getting smaller with each progression. The B wave today did not make a new high, so it is very possible the high has already been made. By the time factor that I labeled, the bulls don't have much time left to break above it.
I keep counting this pattern over and over again. It is confusing, but the indicators are showing a possible rollover here to support a final 5th wave count.
Mar 11, 2010
This 5th wave was completed just before the recent C wave correction. The measurement is a little tricky compared to our current pattern. The counts don't always go in the direction or distance you think they will within impulsive waves and I believe the measure point is much lower during our current rally from February. Ignore the arrow as this was done for my facebook friends a couple of days ago. I drew a line through each abc(4) pattern to make it a little easier for comparison.