Feb 26, 2010

How to Identify a C wave and Measure for Target

I am sure many are trying to figure out why I am so bearish and comfortable holding on to my 10.96 TZA goof. I should have known wave 4 would go much higher than it has. In my first example it doesn't retrace as high as most. I would also like to show you the beauty of Elliot Wave when combined with fibinocci measurements. Prechter has been wrong his predictions because in traditional elliot wave, there is no real way to count c waves. The problem is within a C wave, every 4th and 5th wave have an ABC pattern that extends them beyond their normal targets. You can see how over months or years this would throw off any prediction if you didn't know what to look for. I posted the link to the new rules in the facebook links section for anyone who wants to download the free e-book.

I figured I would start with the C wave of 5 that ended the trading day today using a 1 minute chart. Notice the 423.6% target measured by the first 3 waves. I labeled the last projection, "wave 5 from March" because this is essentially the same pattern and to illustrate how we need to play the rest of the year.
Now see if you see the resemblance in the 60min chart. I apologize for the labeling, the last time I tried to delete them on one chart, my program deleted them all my formats.
Now, for the grand finale, to really illustrate the beauty of Elliot Wave, here is the Dow from 2007 using the same technique and fibinocci measurement. No matter the scale, the pattern and measurements are the same. In red I performed the same measurement, and it appears we will get the double-top that many have been looking for, but it will take a while to get there. The bottom target specifically is 3355.

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